[
  {
    "id": "xai-grok-3-by-end-of-2024",
    "claimant": "Elon Musk, xAI",
    "claim": "Musk said in mid-2024 that xAI's Grok 3, trained on about 100,000 Nvidia H100 chips, would arrive by the end of 2024.",
    "made_on": "2024-07-01",
    "due": "2024-12-31",
    "due_label": "By end of 2024",
    "category": "model",
    "status": "missed",
    "status_note": "The prediction was made in a July 2024 post on X (exact day not recorded here). TechCrunch reported on January 2, 2025 that Grok 3 had not arrived. Musk said in mid-February 2025 that Grok 3 would be unveiled with a live demo the following Monday, about seven weeks after the stated deadline.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "xAI's next-gen Grok model didn't arrive on time, adding to a trend",
        "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/02/xais-next-gen-grok-model-didnt-arrive-on-time-adding-to-a-trend",
        "publisher": "TechCrunch",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-01-02"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "xAI's next-gen Grok model didn't arrive on time, adding to a trend",
        "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/02/xais-next-gen-grok-model-didnt-arrive-on-time-adding-to-a-trend",
        "publisher": "TechCrunch",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-01-02"
      },
      {
        "title": "Elon Musk says xAI's Grok 3 chatbot to be unveiled on Monday",
        "url": "https://online91.thedailystar.net/tech-startup/news/elon-musk-says-xais-grok-3-chatbot-be-unveiled-monday-3825271",
        "publisher": "The Daily Star (Reuters)",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "seoul-frontier-safety-frameworks-by-paris-summit",
    "claimant": "Signatories of the Frontier AI Safety Commitments (16 companies at launch, 20 later)",
    "claim": "AI developers that signed the Frontier AI Safety Commitments at the AI Seoul Summit agreed to publish a safety framework setting out how they would assess and manage severe risks from their frontier models, in time for the AI Action Summit in France in February 2025.",
    "made_on": "2024-05-01",
    "due": "2025-02-10",
    "due_label": "By the AI Action Summit in Paris (February 2025)",
    "category": "safety",
    "status": "partly",
    "status_note": "Commitments announced at the May 2024 Seoul summit (made_on is the first of the month). Independent trackers count about 12 signatories that published a severe-risk framework, about 2 that published something narrower, and about 6 that published none; METR lists 01.AI, Inflection AI, MiniMax, Mistral AI, Technology Innovation Institute, and Zhipu AI as having no published framework. Tracker counts differ slightly and the commitments are voluntary.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Tech companies agree safety commitments on development of AI",
        "url": "https://www.electronicspecifier.com/products/artificial-intelligence/tech-companies-agree-safety-commitments-on-development-of-ai/",
        "publisher": "Electronic Specifier",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "Frontier AI Safety Policies",
        "url": "https://metr.org/faisc",
        "publisher": "METR",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Frontier AI Safety Commitments: who published a framework",
        "url": "https://regulations.ai/governance/positions/seoul-commitments",
        "publisher": "regulations.ai",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "ai-policy-and-safety-map"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "eu-gpai-code-of-practice-by-may-2025",
    "claimant": "European Commission (AI Office)",
    "claim": "Under the AI Act timetable, the Commission's General-Purpose AI Code of Practice was to be finalized in May 2025, ahead of the general-purpose model obligations that began on August 2, 2025.",
    "made_on": "2024-06-13",
    "due": "2025-05-01",
    "due_label": "May 2025",
    "category": "policy",
    "status": "partly",
    "status_note": "made_on is the date the AI Act was adopted. Sources describe the target only as May 2025, so due is set to the first of that month. The Commission published the final code on July 10, 2025, about two months late but before the August 2, 2025 start of obligations.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "European Union published Code of Practice (general-purpose AI)",
        "url": "https://www.dlapiper.com/en-ro/insights/publications/2025/07/european-union-published-code-of-practice",
        "publisher": "DLA Piper",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-07-16"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "EU AI Act: European Commission publishes General-Purpose AI Code of Practice",
        "url": "https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2025/08/eu-ai-act-european-commission-publishes-generalpurpose-ai-code-of-practice",
        "publisher": "Jones Day",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "EU releases final version of AI Code of Practice",
        "url": "https://www.techuk.org/resource/eu-releases-final-version-of-ai-code-of-practice.html",
        "publisher": "techUK",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "ai-policy-and-safety-map"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "tesla-austin-robotaxi-june-2025",
    "claimant": "Tesla (Elon Musk)",
    "claim": "Tesla said it would launch a robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, by the end of June 2025; Musk later said the pilot was tentatively set for June 22.",
    "made_on": "2025-06-01",
    "due": "2025-06-30",
    "due_label": "June 2025",
    "category": "product",
    "status": "partly",
    "status_note": "The June target was stated publicly before June 2025; made_on is set to the first of the month because the date of the first statement is not recorded here. Tesla began a limited pilot on June 22, 2025, with about 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles in a geofenced part of South Austin, invited riders only, and a Tesla employee in the front passenger seat as a safety monitor.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Everything we know about Tesla's robotaxi launch in Austin",
        "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/everything-know-teslas-robotaxi-launch-austin-rcna214135",
        "publisher": "NBC News",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Tesla Robotaxi Launch In Austin Expected This Month",
        "url": "https://www.silicon.co.uk/cloud/ai/tesla-austin-robotaxi-617276",
        "publisher": "Silicon UK",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "Tesla robotaxi hits Austin streets in limited launch with safety monitor, select riders",
        "url": "https://www.autonews.com/tesla/an-tesla-robotaxi-launches-with-safety-monitor",
        "publisher": "Automotive News",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Tesla launches a limited robotaxi service in Austin on a landmark day for autonomous ambitions",
        "url": "https://seekingalpha.com/news/4460585-tesla-launches-a-limited-robotaxi-service-in-austin-on-a-landmark-day-for-autonomous-ambitions",
        "publisher": "Seeking Alpha",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "robotics-tesla-robotaxi-safety-report"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "us-ai-action-plan-within-180-days",
    "claimant": "United States government (White House)",
    "claim": "Executive Order 14179 directed White House science, AI, and national security advisers to develop and submit an AI action plan to the President within 180 days of the January 23, 2025 order.",
    "made_on": "2025-01-23",
    "due": "2025-07-22",
    "due_label": "Within 180 days",
    "category": "policy",
    "status": "partly",
    "status_note": "The White House released America's AI Action Plan, with three accompanying executive orders, on July 23, 2025, one day after the 180-day mark. Recorded as partly kept because it was a day late; the plan itself was delivered.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Executive Order 14179: Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence (Federal Register, 90 FR 8741)",
        "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2025-01-31/html/2025-02172.htm",
        "publisher": "Federal Register (GovInfo)",
        "type": "document",
        "published": "2025-01-31"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "White House Issues Long-Awaited AI Action Plan and Accompanying Executive Orders",
        "url": "https://www.akingump.com/en/insights/alerts/white-house-issues-long-awaited-ai-action-plan-and-accompanying-executive-orders",
        "publisher": "Akin Gump",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "White House Launches AI Action Plan and Executive Orders to Promote Innovation, Infrastructure, and International Diplomacy and Security",
        "url": "https://www.wiley.law/alert-White-House-Launches-AI-Action-Plan-and-Executive-Orders-to-Promote-Innovation-Infrastructure-and-International-Diplomacy-and-Security",
        "publisher": "Wiley",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "ai-policy-and-safety-map"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "openai-open-weight-model-later-summer-2025",
    "claimant": "Sam Altman, OpenAI",
    "claim": "After missing an earlier June target, Altman said on June 10, 2025 that OpenAI's first open-weight model would come later in the summer, not in June.",
    "made_on": "2025-06-10",
    "due": "2025-08-31",
    "due_label": "Later this summer",
    "category": "model",
    "status": "kept",
    "status_note": "Due is read as the end of August. OpenAI postponed the release again in mid-July for more safety testing, then released gpt-oss-120b and gpt-oss-20b in early August 2025 (reports give August 5; one gives August 2). The model arrived within the revised window but after the original June target.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "OpenAI delays launch of its open-weight AI model: All you need to know",
        "url": "https://www.business-standard.com/technology/tech-news/openai-delays-launch-of-its-open-weight-ai-model-all-you-need-to-know-125061100431_1.html",
        "publisher": "Business Standard",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-06-11"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "Sam Altman says OpenAI is delaying its open-weight model — again",
        "url": "https://www.aol.com/sam-altman-says-openai-delaying-101552229.html",
        "publisher": "Business Insider (via AOL)",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "OpenAI launches two new AI models ahead of GPT-5 - here's everything you need to know",
        "url": "https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/openai-launches-two-new-ai-models-ahead-of-gpt-5-heres-everything-you-need-to-know",
        "publisher": "Tom's Guide",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "google-gemini-replaces-assistant-on-mobile-2025",
    "claimant": "Google",
    "claim": "Google said that later in 2025 the classic Google Assistant would no longer be accessible on most mobile devices or available for new downloads, with users moved to Gemini.",
    "made_on": "2025-03-01",
    "due": "2025-12-31",
    "due_label": "Later this year",
    "category": "product",
    "status": "withdrawn",
    "status_note": "Announced on Google's Keyword blog in mid-March 2025 (sources differ on the day, so made_on is the first of the month). On December 20, 2025 Google said it was adjusting the timeline and the switch would continue into 2026, without giving a completion date.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "It's official: Google Assistant will be retired for phones this year, with Gemini taking over",
        "url": "https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/its-official-google-assistant-will-be-retired-for-phones-this-year-with-gemini-taking-over",
        "publisher": "TechRadar",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Google to replace Google Assistant with Gemini",
        "url": "https://searchengineland.com/google-to-replace-google-assistant-with-gemini-453269",
        "publisher": "Search Engine Land",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "The switch from Google Assistant to Gemini on Android devices has been pushed back to next year",
        "url": "https://www.techradar.com/phones/android/the-switch-from-google-assistant-to-gemini-on-android-devices-has-been-pushed-back-to-next-year",
        "publisher": "TechRadar",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Google delays Gemini's complete takeover of Assistant until 2026",
        "url": "https://ppc.land/google-delays-geminis-complete-takeover-of-assistant-until-2026/",
        "publisher": "PPC Land",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "tesla-cybercab-production-april-2026",
    "claimant": "Elon Musk, Tesla",
    "claim": "At Tesla's November 2025 shareholder meeting, Musk said production of the Cybercab, a two-seat vehicle without steering wheel or pedals, would begin at Gigafactory Texas in April 2026.",
    "made_on": "2025-11-01",
    "due": "2026-04-30",
    "due_label": "April 2026",
    "category": "product",
    "status": "kept",
    "status_note": "Shareholder meeting held in early November 2025 (made_on is the first of the month). The first production unit came off the Giga Texas line on February 17, 2026, and Tesla said on April 23, 2026 that Cybercab was in production. Musk said the early rate would be slow; output figures are not published, and in July 2026 it was not yet clear when the vehicle would be available to individuals.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Tesla Cybercab Production Will Begin In April 2026, Elon Musk Says",
        "url": "https://insideevs.com/news/778232/tesla-cybercab-production-april-2026/",
        "publisher": "InsideEVs",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Tesla expects to start Cybercab production in April next year",
        "url": "https://thedriven.io/2025/11/10/tesla-expects-to-start-cybercab-production-in-april-next-year/",
        "publisher": "The Driven",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-11-10"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "Tesla confirms Cybercab production has started despite delays in unsupervised driving",
        "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/04/23/tesla-cybercab-production-starts-no-nhtsa-2500-vehicle-cap/",
        "publisher": "Electrek",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2026-04-23"
      },
      {
        "title": "Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2026 earnings report",
        "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/22/tesla-tsla-q2-2026-earnings-report.html",
        "publisher": "CNBC",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2026-07-22"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "robotics-tesla-robotaxi-safety-report"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "microsoft-fairwater-wisconsin-early-2026",
    "claimant": "Microsoft",
    "claim": "Microsoft said its Fairwater AI datacenter in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, was on track to come online in early 2026.",
    "made_on": "2025-09-18",
    "due": "2026-06-30",
    "due_label": "Early 2026",
    "category": "infrastructure",
    "status": "kept",
    "status_note": "Due reads early 2026 as the first half. Satya Nadella posted on April 16, 2026 that the site was going live ahead of schedule, and on June 23, 2026 Microsoft announced the first Mount Pleasant facility was fully operational. Microsoft has not published a power figure for the site.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Made in Wisconsin: The world's most powerful AI datacenter",
        "url": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/on-the-issues/2025/09/18/made-in-wisconsin-the-worlds-most-powerful-ai-datacenter/",
        "publisher": "Microsoft",
        "type": "primary",
        "published": "2025-09-18"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "Microsoft CEO says Fairwater data center site is \"going live ahead of schedule\"",
        "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/microsoft-ceo-says-fairwater-data-center-site-is-going-live-ahead-of-schedule/",
        "publisher": "DatacenterDynamics",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Microsoft completes first Mount Pleasant data center, announces facility is operational",
        "url": "https://wtmj.com/news/2026/06/23/microsoft-completes-first-mount-pleasant-data-center-announces-facility-is-operational/",
        "publisher": "WTMJ",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2026-06-23"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "ai-energy-use-explained"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "eu-ai-act-high-risk-rules-august-2026",
    "claimant": "European Union",
    "claim": "The AI Act set August 2, 2026 as the date from which obligations for stand-alone high-risk AI systems (Annex III uses such as hiring and credit scoring) would apply.",
    "made_on": "2024-06-13",
    "due": "2026-08-02",
    "due_label": "2 August 2026",
    "category": "policy",
    "status": "withdrawn",
    "status_note": "The EU changed the date before it arrived. Under the Digital Omnibus on AI, provisionally agreed on May 7, 2026 and adopted by the Council on June 29, 2026, Annex III obligations move to December 2, 2027 and high-risk AI in regulated products to August 2, 2028. Most Article 50 transparency duties kept the August 2026 date.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Yes, August 2 Still Matters: The EU Approved a High-Risk AI Delay, but Most Transparency Obligations Remain",
        "url": "https://www.joneswalker.com/en/insights/blogs/ai-law-blog/yes-august-2-still-matters-the-eu-approved-a-high-risk-ai-delay-but-most-trans.html",
        "publisher": "Jones Walker",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "EU AI Act Omnibus Agreement — Postponed High-Risk Deadlines and Other Key Changes",
        "url": "https://www.gibsondunn.com/eu-ai-act-omnibus-agreement-postponed-high-risk-deadlines-and-other-key-changes/",
        "publisher": "Gibson Dunn",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Digital Omnibus on AI (Legislative Train)",
        "url": "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/package-digital-package/file-digital-omnibus-on-ai",
        "publisher": "European Parliament",
        "type": "regulatory"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "ai-policy-and-safety-map"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "openai-ai-research-intern-by-september-2026",
    "claimant": "Sam Altman, OpenAI",
    "claim": "In an October 2025 livestream, Altman said OpenAI believed it could have an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026.",
    "made_on": "2025-10-01",
    "due": "2026-09-30",
    "due_label": "By September 2026",
    "category": "research",
    "status": "unclear",
    "status_note": "Livestream held in October 2025 (made_on is the first of the month). On September 6, 2026 OpenAI said it had met the milestone, defining a research intern as a system that carries out well-defined research tasks under human direction. OpenAI set the goal, wrote the definition, and supplied the measurements; no independent assessment has been published.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "OpenAI roadmap revealed: AI research interns by 2026, full-blown AGI researchers by 2028",
        "url": "https://www.techradar.com/ai-platforms-assistants/chatgpt/openai-roadmap-revealed-ai-research-interns-by-2026-full-blown-agi-researchers-by-2028",
        "publisher": "TechRadar",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "OpenAI says it has built an 'automated research intern' to carry out menial tasks — and it's only just getting started",
        "url": "https://techradar.com/pro/openai-says-it-has-built-an-automated-research-intern-to-carry-out-menial-tasks-and-its-only-just-getting-started",
        "publisher": "TechRadar",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "OpenAI Says It Hit 'Automated Research Intern' Milestone",
        "url": "https://aiweekly.co/alerts/openai-says-it-hit-automated-research-intern-milestone",
        "publisher": "AI Weekly",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "apple-personalized-siri-in-2026",
    "claimant": "Apple",
    "claim": "After delaying the personalized Siri features it first showed in 2024, Apple said in February 2026 that the revamped Siri remained on track to launch in 2026.",
    "made_on": "2026-02-12",
    "due": "2026-12-31",
    "due_label": "In 2026",
    "category": "product",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Not yet resolved: a beta is not the full launch Apple described, and the 2026 deadline has not passed. Apple began rolling out Siri AI in beta, in English, on September 14, 2026 with iOS 27, with more languages promised the following month. It requires an Apple Intelligence-capable device. The features arrived well after the timeline Apple first gave in 2024 but within the revised 2026 window.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Apple Confirms Revamped Siri is Still Coming in 2026",
        "url": "https://www.macrumors.com/2026/02/12/siri-ios-26-launch-confirmed-apple/",
        "publisher": "MacRumors",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2026-02-12"
      },
      {
        "title": "Apple Plans to Release Delayed Siri Apple Intelligence Features in Spring 2026",
        "url": "https://www.macrumors.com/2025/06/12/apple-intelligence-siri-spring-2026/",
        "publisher": "MacRumors",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-06-12"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "Siri AI, a profoundly more capable and personal assistant, is here",
        "url": "https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2026/09/siri-ai-a-profoundly-more-capable-and-personal-assistant-is-here/",
        "publisher": "Apple",
        "type": "primary"
      },
      {
        "title": "iOS 27 Release Date: Sept. 14 Launch, Siri AI Features",
        "url": "https://tech-insider.org/ios-27-release-date-siri-ai-features-2026/",
        "publisher": "Tech Insider",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "meta-prometheus-cluster-online-2026",
    "claimant": "Mark Zuckerberg, Meta",
    "claim": "Zuckerberg said Meta's first multi-gigawatt AI cluster, Prometheus in New Albany, Ohio, would come online in 2026.",
    "made_on": "2025-07-01",
    "due": "2026-12-31",
    "due_label": "In 2026",
    "category": "infrastructure",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Announced in July 2025 (made_on is the first of the month). As of early October 2026, reporting described Prometheus as a roughly 1-gigawatt cluster still under construction; we found no Meta announcement that it is online.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Meta to invest \"hundreds of billions of dollars into compute to build superintelligence,\" with several multi-GW data center clusters",
        "url": "https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/meta-to-invest-hundreds-of-billions-of-dollars-into-compute-to-build-superintelligence-with-several-multi-gw-data-center-clusters/",
        "publisher": "DatacenterDynamics",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Mark Zuckerberg Reveals Major Meta AI Supercluster Push",
        "url": "https://datacentremagazine.com/news/mark-zuckerberg-reveals-100bn-meta-ai-supercluster-push",
        "publisher": "Data Centre Magazine",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "ai-energy-use-explained"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "tesla-unsupervised-fsd-widespread-us-2026",
    "claimant": "Elon Musk, Tesla",
    "claim": "Musk said in May 2026 that Tesla's unsupervised self-driving service would probably be widespread in the US by the end of 2026.",
    "made_on": "2026-05-18",
    "due": "2026-12-31",
    "due_label": "By the end of this year",
    "category": "product",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "made_on is the date of Electrek's report on the remark. When the statement was made, Tesla operated fewer than 30 unsupervised robotaxis across three Texas cities, per Electrek. On the April 2026 earnings call Musk guessed unsupervised driving would reach customer cars probably in the fourth quarter. Musk's earlier dates for unsupervised driving were missed.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Musk says unsupervised FSD will be widespread in the US by end of year (Smart Mobility Summit)",
        "url": "https://electrek.co/2026/05/18/musk-unsupervised-fsd-widespread-us-end-of-year-smart-mobility-summit/",
        "publisher": "Electrek",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2026-05-18"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "robotics-tesla-robotaxi-safety-report"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "anthropic-powerful-ai-late-2026-early-2027",
    "claimant": "Anthropic",
    "claim": "In its March 2025 submission to the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, Anthropic said it expects powerful AI systems, with capabilities matching or exceeding Nobel Prize winners across most disciplines and able to work autonomously for long periods, to emerge in late 2026 or early 2027.",
    "made_on": "2025-03-01",
    "due": "2027-03-31",
    "due_label": "Late 2026 or early 2027",
    "category": "model",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Submitted in March 2025 (made_on is the first of the month); due reads early 2027 as the end of the first quarter. A Redwood Research post says Anthropic's Jack Clark confirmed something like this remained the company's view as of September 2025. The capability description is broad, so checking it will require judgment.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Anthropic's recommendations to OSTP for the U.S. AI Action Plan",
        "url": "https://anthropic.com/news/anthropic-s-recommendations-ostp-u-s-ai-action-plan",
        "publisher": "Anthropic",
        "type": "primary"
      },
      {
        "title": "What's up with Anthropic predicting AGI by early 2027?",
        "url": "https://blog.redwoodresearch.org/p/whats-up-with-anthropic-predicting",
        "publisher": "Redwood Research",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "eu-ai-act-annex-iii-december-2027",
    "claimant": "European Union",
    "claim": "Under the Digital Omnibus amendment to the AI Act, obligations for stand-alone high-risk AI systems (Annex III) are to apply from December 2, 2027, with high-risk AI in regulated products following on August 2, 2028.",
    "made_on": "2026-06-29",
    "due": "2027-12-02",
    "due_label": "2 December 2027",
    "category": "policy",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "made_on is the date the Council adopted the amendment. The final text uses fixed dates rather than the Commission's proposed conditional trigger tied to the readiness of standards.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "EU AI Act Omnibus Agreement — Postponed High-Risk Deadlines and Other Key Changes",
        "url": "https://www.gibsondunn.com/eu-ai-act-omnibus-agreement-postponed-high-risk-deadlines-and-other-key-changes/",
        "publisher": "Gibson Dunn",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "Digital Omnibus on AI (Legislative Train)",
        "url": "https://www.europarl.europa.eu/legislative-train/package-digital-package/file-digital-omnibus-on-ai",
        "publisher": "European Parliament",
        "type": "regulatory"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "ai-policy-and-safety-map"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "china-ai-plus-70-percent-agents-2027",
    "claimant": "China State Council",
    "claim": "China's \"AI+\" action plan set a target for adoption of next-generation intelligent terminals and AI agents to exceed 70 percent in key areas by 2027, and 90 percent by 2030.",
    "made_on": "2025-08-01",
    "due": "2027-12-31",
    "due_label": "By 2027",
    "category": "policy",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Issued by the State Council in August 2025 (made_on is the first of the month). English-language reports differ on what the 70 percent measures; most describe device and agent penetration, while one describes the share of key sectors using AI. We could not check the original Chinese text.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Beijing Sets Ambitious Targets for Nationwide AI Integration Over 10 Years",
        "url": "https://decrypt.co/337286/beijing-ambitious-targets-nationwide-ai-integration?amp=1",
        "publisher": "Decrypt",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "China's Big AI Diffusion Plan is Here. Will it Work?",
        "url": "https://mattsheehan.substack.com/p/chinas-big-ai-diffusion-plan-is-here",
        "publisher": "Matt Sheehan",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "ai-policy-and-safety-map"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "nvidia-rubin-ultra-second-half-2027",
    "claimant": "Nvidia",
    "claim": "At GTC in March 2025, Nvidia said Rubin Ultra, a four-GPU package delivering up to 100 petaflops, would follow Rubin in the second half of 2027, in a rack-scale NVL576 system.",
    "made_on": "2025-03-18",
    "due": "2027-12-31",
    "due_label": "Second half of 2027",
    "category": "infrastructure",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Not yet due. The base Rubin platform, scheduled for the second half of 2026, has begun shipping according to Nvidia statements reported in 2026, though reports differ on volumes. We found no Nvidia statement changing the Rubin Ultra date.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Nvidia announces new GPUs at GTC 2025, including Rubin",
        "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/18/nvidia-announces-new-gpus-at-gtc-2025-including-rubin",
        "publisher": "TechCrunch",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-03-18"
      },
      {
        "title": "GTC 2025: NVIDIA unveils more on Rubin GPUs, announces Feynman for 2028 in roadmap update",
        "url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/03/19/news-gtc-2025-nvidia-unveils-more-on-rubin-gpus-announces-feynman-for-2028-in-roadmap-update/",
        "publisher": "TrendForce",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-03-19"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "openai-revenue-100-billion-2027",
    "claimant": "Sam Altman, OpenAI",
    "claim": "Asked on the BG2 podcast whether OpenAI could reach $100 billion in annual revenue within two to three years, Altman replied that it could happen in 2027.",
    "made_on": "2025-10-01",
    "due": "2027-12-31",
    "due_label": "\"How about '27?\"",
    "category": "revenue",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Podcast recorded in late October 2025 (made_on is the first of the month). Altman said revenue was well above the widely cited $13 billion annual estimate but did not elaborate, and some outlets treated the remark as a hint rather than a forecast. OpenAI is private, so any revenue figure will be company-supplied or reported.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Sam Altman on OpenAI annual revenue of $13 billion and a $100 billion forecast for 2027",
        "url": "https://fortune.com/2025/11/01/sam-altman-openai-annual-revenue-13-billion-forecast-100-billion-2027",
        "publisher": "Fortune",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-11-01"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "reading-ai-funding-and-revenue-claims"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "tesla-optimus-external-deliveries-late-2027",
    "claimant": "Tesla",
    "claim": "On its October 21, 2026 earnings call, Tesla said deliveries of Optimus humanoid robots to outside companies are expected toward the end of 2027, and Musk said reaching a rate of 20,000 units a week on the Fremont line would take at least a year.",
    "made_on": "2026-10-21",
    "due": "2027-12-31",
    "due_label": "Toward the end of 2027",
    "category": "product",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Tesla said early production had started on the Fremont line, subject to progress on hardware, software, and reliability. Tesla built only a few hundred Optimus units by mid-2025, well short of its earlier 2025 ambitions.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Tesla (TSLA) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript",
        "url": "https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2026/10/22/tesla-tsla-q3-2026-earnings-call-transcript/",
        "publisher": "The Motley Fool",
        "type": "document",
        "published": "2026-10-22"
      },
      {
        "title": "Tesla Begins Optimus Production in Fremont, Targets Customer Deliveries in Late 2027",
        "url": "https://www.humanoidsdaily.com/news/tesla-q3-2026-optimus-production-fremont-2027-deliveries",
        "publisher": "Humanoids Daily",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "robotics-demos-vs-deployment"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "openai-automated-ai-researcher-by-march-2028",
    "claimant": "Sam Altman, OpenAI",
    "claim": "In the same October 2025 livestream, Altman said OpenAI aimed to have a fully automated, legitimate AI researcher by March 2028.",
    "made_on": "2025-10-01",
    "due": "2028-03-31",
    "due_label": "By March 2028",
    "category": "research",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Livestream held in October 2025 (made_on is the first of the month). In September 2026 OpenAI said it was still aiming for the date, while acknowledging it does not yet know how to safely achieve fully aligned recursive self-improvement.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "OpenAI roadmap revealed: AI research interns by 2026, full-blown AGI researchers by 2028",
        "url": "https://www.techradar.com/ai-platforms-assistants/chatgpt/openai-roadmap-revealed-ai-research-interns-by-2026-full-blown-agi-researchers-by-2028",
        "publisher": "TechRadar",
        "type": "independent"
      },
      {
        "title": "OpenAI's automated research intern is making progress toward March 2028",
        "url": "https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/science/openai-s-automated-research-intern-is-making-progress-toward-march-2028/story",
        "publisher": "NewsBytes",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "nvidia-feynman-2028",
    "claimant": "Nvidia",
    "claim": "At GTC in March 2025, Nvidia said its Feynman GPU architecture, following Rubin Ultra, would arrive in 2028.",
    "made_on": "2025-03-18",
    "due": "2028-12-31",
    "due_label": "2028",
    "category": "infrastructure",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Not yet due. Nvidia gave few details beyond the name and use of a Vera CPU.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Nvidia announces new GPUs at GTC 2025, including Rubin",
        "url": "https://techcrunch.com/2025/03/18/nvidia-announces-new-gpus-at-gtc-2025-including-rubin",
        "publisher": "TechCrunch",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-03-18"
      },
      {
        "title": "GTC 2025: NVIDIA unveils more on Rubin GPUs, announces Feynman for 2028 in roadmap update",
        "url": "https://www.trendforce.com/news/2025/03/19/news-gtc-2025-nvidia-unveils-more-on-rubin-gpus-announces-feynman-for-2028-in-roadmap-update/",
        "publisher": "TrendForce",
        "type": "independent",
        "published": "2025-03-19"
      }
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "stargate-500-billion-over-four-years",
    "claimant": "OpenAI, SoftBank, Oracle, and MGX (Stargate)",
    "claim": "The Stargate Project said it intends to invest $500 billion over four years building AI infrastructure for OpenAI in the United States, deploying $100 billion immediately.",
    "made_on": "2025-01-21",
    "due": "2029-01-21",
    "due_label": "Over the next four years",
    "category": "infrastructure",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "All progress figures are company-supplied and describe planned capacity and investment, not money spent. In September 2025 OpenAI said five new sites brought Stargate to nearly 7 gigawatts of planned capacity and over $400 billion of investment over three years; in October 2025 a Michigan site took it past 8 gigawatts and $450 billion.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "Announcing The Stargate Project",
        "url": "https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/",
        "publisher": "OpenAI",
        "type": "primary",
        "published": "2025-01-21"
      },
      {
        "title": "Stargate LLC",
        "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stargate_LLC",
        "publisher": "Wikipedia",
        "type": "independent"
      }
    ],
    "outcome_sources": [
      {
        "title": "OpenAI, Oracle, and SoftBank expand Stargate with five new AI data center sites",
        "url": "https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/",
        "publisher": "OpenAI",
        "type": "primary"
      },
      {
        "title": "Expanding Stargate to Michigan",
        "url": "https://openai.com/index/expanding-stargate-to-michigan/",
        "publisher": "OpenAI",
        "type": "primary"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "reading-ai-funding-and-revenue-claims",
      "ai-energy-use-explained"
    ]
  },
  {
    "id": "uk-public-compute-20x-by-2030",
    "claimant": "United Kingdom government",
    "claim": "The UK government accepted the AI Opportunities Action Plan recommendation to expand sovereign compute capacity, through the AI Research Resource, by at least 20 times by 2030; its later compute roadmap set a target of 420 AI exaflops by 2030, up from 21 in 2025.",
    "made_on": "2025-01-01",
    "due": "2030-12-31",
    "due_label": "By 2030",
    "category": "infrastructure",
    "status": "pending",
    "status_note": "Government response published in January 2025 (made_on is the first of the month). The government has committed up to £2 billion for public compute through 2030. Its One Year On report of January 29, 2026, a self-assessment, cites the Isambard-AI supercomputer, launched in Bristol in July 2025, as progress.",
    "checked_on": "2026-10-22",
    "sources": [
      {
        "title": "AI Opportunities Action Plan: government response",
        "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-opportunities-action-plan-government-response/ai-opportunities-action-plan-government-response",
        "publisher": "UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology",
        "type": "primary"
      },
      {
        "title": "UK Compute Roadmap",
        "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-compute-roadmap/uk-compute-roadmap",
        "publisher": "UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology",
        "type": "primary"
      },
      {
        "title": "AI Opportunities Action Plan: One Year On",
        "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-opportunities-action-plan-one-year-on/ai-opportunities-action-plan-one-year-on",
        "publisher": "UK Department for Science, Innovation and Technology",
        "type": "primary"
      }
    ],
    "related": [
      "ai-policy-and-safety-map"
    ]
  }
]